This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
July 18
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18?
July 20
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?
July 22
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?
July 25
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
July 31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
August 15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
July 23
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23?
July 24
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?
July 26
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
July 27
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?
July 28
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?
July 29
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?
July 30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?
August 9
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
August 2
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
August 1
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?
August 3
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?
August 4
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?
August 31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
September 30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
October 31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
November 30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
December 31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
| # | Market | YES | NO | Liquidity | Orders | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 18 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18? | 100.0% | 0.0% | $0 | Closed | 100% |
| 2 | July 20 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20? | 100.0% | 0.0% | $0 | Closed | 100% |
| 3 | July 22 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22? | 100.0% | 0.0% | $0 | Closed | 100% |
| 4 | July 25 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | 100.0% | 0.0% | $0 | Closed | 100% |
| 5 | July 31 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | 100.0% | 0.0% | $0 | Closed | 100% |
| 6 | August 15 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | 100.0% | 0.0% | $0 | Closed | 100% |
| 7 | July 23 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23? | 100.0% | 0.0% | $0 | Closed | 100% |
| 8 | July 24 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24? | 100.0% | 0.0% | $0 | Closed | 100% |
| 9 | July 26 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? | 100.0% | 0.0% | $0 | Closed | 100% |
| 10 | July 27 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27? | 100.0% | 0.0% | $0 | Closed | 100% |
| 11 | July 28 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28? | 100.0% | 0.0% | $0 | Closed | 100% |
| 12 | July 29 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29? | 100.0% | 0.0% | $0 | Closed | 100% |
| 13 | July 30 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30? | 100.0% | 0.0% | $0 | Closed | 100% |
| 14 | August 9 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | 100.0% | 0.0% | $0 | Closed | 100% |
| 15 | August 2 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | 100.0% | 0.0% | $0 | Closed | 100% |
| 16 | August 1 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | 100.0% | 0.0% | $0 | Closed | 100% |
| 17 | August 3 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | 100.0% | 0.0% | $0 | Closed | 100% |
| 18 | August 4 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | 100.0% | 0.0% | $0 | Closed | 100% |
| 19 | August 31 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | 98.0% | 2.1% | $62.5K | Open | 98% |
| 20 | September 30 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 86.5% | 13.5% | $53.6K | Open | 87% |
| 21 | October 31 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 75.5% | 24.5% | $49.3K | Open | 76% |
| 22 | November 30 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 72.5% | 27.5% | $14.6K | Open | 73% |
| 23 | December 31 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 66.5% | 33.5% | $55.0K | Open | 67% |